Let me preface this by saying two things. (1) This post deals with Mid-Scotland and Fife Only; and (2) The SNP 1/2 strategy works in only two regions in Scotland – Highlands and Islands, and South of Scotland. In Mid-Scotland and Fife, the choice is clear – a vote for the SNP on the regional ballot is a wasted vote.
Mid-Scotland and Fife is one of the most polarised regions in Scotland. There is large support for Yes, but unfortunately an entrenched unionist thread in this region – articulated by the fact that Fife happens to have the largest orange lodge in Scotland.
This clearly defined split between yes and no makes things extremely clear, and has done since 2016.
The SNP have huge support on the constituency ballot, unfortunately that support means that when it comes to the regional ballot, the SNP get zero seats. As long as their support remains at 120,000 votes on the constituency ballot, they will always get zero seats.
Without going into the maths, the results are pretty clear cut. In order for the SNP to get just one single seat on the regional ballot, they would require at least an additional 46000 votes on top of the 120,000 they already get.
If the SNP happen to take Willie Rennies seat in the constituency ballot as well, then the penalisation they suffer on the regional ballot goes up, not down and they would require at least 80,000 votes on top of the 120,000 votes they already get.
The SNP can get NO SEATS on the Mid-Scotland and Fife Regional list. Not unless they lose at least 3 of their constituency seats and that’s not going to happen.
It is contentious to say this as a candidate because most candidates are scared to put it this way, however, there is too much at stake to engage in political spin-doctoring or being polite about the situation. So I am going to say it the way it needs to be said. I would rather face the potential of upsetting sensibilities and lose the chance of being elected than allow this to continue. I cannot sit idly by while a false strategy thought up by someone in SNP HQ who has very little understanding of the maths, would rather see 6 unionists elected to parliament than a Yes supermajority.
A VOTE FOR THE SNP ON THE REGIONAL BALLOT IN MID-SCOTLAND AND FIFE IS A VOTE FOR THE CONSERVATIVES – It’s just that simple.
The recent polls are extremely worrying, people are still intending to give their second vote to the SNP on both the constituency and the regional ballot and that will only result in one conclusion 4 tories and 2 labour politicians being elected.
We have less than a week to turn this around in Mid-Scotland and Fife. We can unseat at least 3 of those unionists with one independent and two other pro-indy candidates.
I am obviously standing as a candidate in the region, and no doubt SNP HQ will want to try and have a swing at me for bringing this forward, all I would say to that is that I am advocating for a spectrum of Yes candidates in order to remove unionsts from Mid-Scotland and Fife seats and they are advocating SNP 1/2 in this region knowing damn well that whatever maths is used, the result is that SNP 1/2 will do nothing in this region except deliver unionists.
I am advocating:
- Every Yes Voter in Mid-Scotland and Fife vote for the SNP on the constituency ballot
- Every Yes Household in Mid-Scotland and Fife give me the first vote in the household.
- Every Yes Household in Mid-Scotland and Fife give another pro-independence party the rest of the votes in the household.
Why am I advocating this?
Well, it’s not about my own election prospects, it’s about the maths. Once another pro-indy party gets its first seat (which it will do easily under this strategy – whether that be Alba, the Greens etc) it starts to get exponentially more difficult for them, because as they gain seats they start to get penalised. From the start of the regional count, hedging bets between another pro-indy party and myself mean we both start with no penalisation. It, therefore, increases the chances of them gaining a second seat and possibly a third because the regional ballot is proportional in nature.
This should deliver two, possibly 4 extra yes seats but more importantly, unseat up to 4 unionists.
There is very little time to spread the word on this, every poll is showing that we’re heading for 6 unionists on the regional list because people are continuing to waste their regional vote on the SNP. The ballots are now being cast by mail. We need to get the message out before all of them are sent and before the physical polling stations are open.
I’m not saying we can get the full 4 seats, we may have lost that because of this crazy adherence to SNP 1/2 which has zero benefit in Mid-Scotland and Fife, but I am saying that we still have the opportunity to take 2, maybe 3 seats and end the tenure of unelected Tories in this area.
This is not about party politics or about egos or about mudslinging – this is about clear cut maths – and it’s about the future of this country. I genuinely despair at the fact that 6 unionists could be elected in this area, and that the bulk of them would be Tory! I believe in the Yes Movement to put aside all differences and to put this country first. We cannot afford to see 4 tories elected in Mid-Scotland and Fife.